EPA — Expected Points Added — measures how much each play changed a team's expected score.
Every down-and-distance has an expected point value (1st & 10 at midfield is worth more than 3rd & 15 at your own 5);
EPA is the change in that value caused by a play. A 4-yard run on 3rd & 3 is a
good play (converts, keeps the drive)
while a 4-yard pass on 3rd & 12 is a
bad one — yardage alone can't tell them apart, EPA can.
Per-play EPA here grades a player's efficiency on their touches: positive = adding value above an
average play, negative = below. DELTA uses it alongside raw production to spot players whose counting stats
flatter or undersell them — high volume with negative EPA is a warning sign; positive EPA on small volume hints
at more if the role grows.
Volume floor (technical): heavy-workload players are shielded from a harsh per-play penalty — RB ≥140 rushes with YAC/carry ≥3.0 is treated as neutral; WR/TE ≥80 targets floors at 0.92; QB ≥300 plays floors at 0.88.