DELTA v1.0
Dynasty Efficiency + Long-Term Analysis
Click any row to open player card
Δ Pos# Mkt ValPlayer PosAgeTeam PPG'25PPG'24EPA Proj PPG Mod valSys OCTag
Δ PlayerPosAgeTeam FloorProj PPGCeiling EPAUsageMkt ValMod valGapCI Miss% Hit% Elite%
Model = Mkt Val × age × utilization × college × EPA × QB quality × offense style. Picks use raw market value.
TEAMS IN TRADE:
Team A
Mkt Val
Model value
Team B
Mkt Val
Model value
⚖ PLAYER COMPARE vs
PlayerPosAgeTeam EPA'25EPA'24EPA'23EPA'22 RawAppliedEffMkt ValTag
Value changes from offseason moves — sorted by magnitude.
PlayerPosTeamAge AAVTotalEndsYrs Left StatusDynasty Signal
All 32 NFL teams loaded — full contract coverage complete. 🔒 Locked Up = 4+ years remaining · ✓ Stable = 3 years · 🔴 Expiring = 1-2 years · ⚠ Walk Year = contract ends this season
Search and edit any player
None.
DELTA Prospect Score — Pre-landing model using draft capital (40pts), consensus big board tier (30pts), age/dynasty runway (20pts), and combine athleticism (10pts). Landing spot will significantly alter final dynasty value. Scores update automatically when draft picks are confirmed.
About DELTA
Dynasty Efficiency & Long-Term Analysis
What is DELTA?

DELTA evaluates dynasty players over a 2–3 year window using what they've actually done — production history, age relative to their position's prime, opportunity depth, and contract situation. It deliberately ignores market prices as an input, so the model can find gaps between what a player is worth and what the market pays.

Why ignore the market?

Most dynasty tools are self-referential — they reflect what other managers think, which reflects what other managers think. DELTA starts from first principles. Market value appears in the app as a comparison point and yardstick, never as an input to the score or verdict. The gap between model value and market value is the signal.

Glossary

Quick reference for DELTA's terms:

  • DELTA Score (0–99) — the proprietary grade of demonstrated dynasty value: production history, age vs. positional prime, opportunity, contract. League median ≈ 60.
  • Market Value — consensus trade value (FantasyCalc): what the market pays. Used as a yardstick only, never a model input.
  • Model Value — DELTA's own asset price, built from projected production. The gap between Model and Market is the whole product.
  • Verdict (Buy / Sell / Hold) — how a player's model-vs-market gap compares to the rest of the league. Centered on the population, so "buy" means cheaper than the typical player relative to the model.
  • Proj PPG — DELTA's projected points per game for the upcoming season, at your league's scoring.
  • Start Profile — per-start outcomes across recent seasons: hit (startable week), elite (slate-breaking week), miss (hurt your lineup). Weekly dependability, not season totals.
  • Alpha / Workhorse Score — role size grade (targets/touches share): how much of the offense actually flows through the player.
  • System Score (0–100) — offensive environment quality: coordinator, scheme fit, role clarity. League median ≈ 60. Descriptive context only — it does not enter the projection.
  • ⚠ OC change — a new coordinator: everything demonstrated came under the old scheme. Flagged for context only — the model no longer discounts for it. Rookies never had a prior scheme, so the flag never appears.
  • Offense style factors — validated play-by-play tendencies (2022–25): pre-snap motion helps RB production, heavy 12-personnel squeezes WR3s, pass-lean identity (PROE) lifts WR rooms. Small (±2–4%), explained on each affected card.
  • EPA / YPRR — per-play efficiency (Expected Points Added) and yards per route run: quality of play independent of volume.
  • Ripple Effects — measured value shifts on incumbent players when teammates arrive or depart, calibrated on eight seasons of history.
  • Format sensitivity — how much a player's value shifts between standard / half / full PPR, from their reception volume vs. position average.
  • 5th-year option — first-round rookie deals carry a team option for a fifth season; shown as "+opt" until exercised.
  • † stale — a market value not refreshed in the latest fetch; excluded from graded records until it updates.
What the model can't see
  • Recent injuries or transactions not yet reflected in production data — check the data freshness badge.
  • How a new offensive coordinator will actually deploy a player. The ⚠ OC flag marks the change for context, but the model can't predict scheme fit.
  • Any future performance. DELTA scores what a player has demonstrated, not what they might become.
  • Situational upside from teammate changes — if a player signed with a new team this offseason, the model scores their historical production and new system score, but hasn't seen them in that role yet.
Reading the verdicts

Strong Buy / Buy / Hold / Sell / Strong Sell reflect market pricing relative to DELTA's model — not absolute player quality. A Sell on an RB35 means the market is paying more than the model thinks the player is worth at that tier, not that the player is useless. The Read section in each player card explains the specific gap driving the verdict.

Data refreshes nightly via the nflverse pipeline. Model calibrated against the 2023–2024 NFL seasons.
My Team — Sleeper
Connect your Sleeper league
Enter your Sleeper username (or paste a league ID) to see your roster with DELTA Scores, Start Profiles, model vs market, and buy/sell tags. Read-only — DELTA never changes anything in your league, and the rest of the app works exactly the same without a connection.
Scarcity Engine Audit
Loading…